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September 28, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The Fed: *Raises rates by three-quarters of a point to 3-3.25%*Projects 4.4% rates at the end of 2022, suggesting a 75 and a 50*Rates climb to 4.6% next year (up from 3.8%) *Sees unemployment rising to 4.4% next year This is...
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September 21, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance CPI: Shelter came in hotter. As did food at home. The offset from a decline in gasoline by 10.6% wasn't enough. pic.twitter.com/kP3dzh2Dvs — Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@ayeshatariq) September 13, 2022 Here's a chart of year-on-year CPI inflation, broken down by major...
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Market Commentary
Q2 2022

Market Performance Reflects Higher Likelihood of Recession It was hard to hide in Q2. Stocks and bonds both recorded historically bad quarters as inflation continued to march higher and the Fed began aggressively hiking rates. Higher interest rates and abrupt rhetoric changes by Fed Chair Powell had the immediate effect of pushing down stock multiples...
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September 7, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The 60/40 portfolio is running a 14% loss YTD. One of the main goals of adding bonds to a portfolio is to reduce the risk of major drawdowns in equities. The 60/40 has prevented deeper losses from equities alone, but it's...
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August 31, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index has lost 19.3% since its record high in January 2021, & is now less than a percentage point away from the first bond bear market in a generation. via @theterminal's Garfield Reynolds & Finbarr Flynn. pic.twitter.com/RvTGldcaZ6...
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August 24, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Holy hell. Priced in dollars per barrel of oil equivalent, German electricity is OVER $1,000/ BARREL! A madness we're struggling to comprehend. pic.twitter.com/CiIs9LHvZ1 — Dani Burger (@daniburgz) August 23, 2022 Euro-Zone Activity Shrinks for Second Month on Price Squeeze "Euro-area economic activity declined for 2nd month, signaling that fears of...
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August 17, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts 91% of S&P 500 companies have now report Q2 earnings. Takeaways: -> 5 out of 11 sectors had negative EPS growth-> Overall earnings growth +6.5%, but outsized driver was energy +297%-> Earnings estimates for '22 & '23 were trimmed Earnings engine stalling #latecycle @Factset pic.twitter.com/Ky1RCu6k5w — Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin)...
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August 10, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Jul headline CPI 8.5%, below est of 8.7%. Core CPI 5.9%, below est of 6.1%. It's notable that Core Services decelerated to 0.2%, the lowest since Dec 2021. A small battle won, market clearly celebrating. pic.twitter.com/NMWxixLkT1 — Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 10, 2022 What drove the CPI YoY% Change: {ECAN} pic.twitter.com/VwI0RUXomx...
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June 8, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The peak inflation argument is peaking up steam Supply chains are still troubled but showing signs of easing Supply chain bottlenecks improved in April yet remained significantly underwater, the RSM US Supply Chain Index shows. Learn more from RSM U.S. economist...
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April 20, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance What Optimists Might Point To Despite the increasingly pessimistic outlook by economists, analysts’ outlook for earnings per share growth for 2022 continues to improve for most countries. pic.twitter.com/Q4b7C3CxUO — Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) April 19, 2022 Earnings are expected to increase about...
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