No fireworks for the June #jobsreport but none needed as cooling in the job market continues: -Jobs growth slows to 206,000-Avg hrly earnings growth cools to 3.9% YoY-Unemp rises to 4.1% 1/ — Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) July 5, 2024 Jobs growth was solid overall. Much of jobs growth in June was concentrated in education and... Read More →

Jobless claims were up slightly but continuing claims keep climbing and are now at the highest since late 2021. Is the Fed paying attention to this? pic.twitter.com/g4FHZigY7o — Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) July 3, 2024 US corporate bond spreads hit “peak confidence” in the US economy 1-2 months ago. Since then, they have been drifting higher... Read More →

3/ The prime working age employment population ratio, probably the best all-in indicator in this report, held steady at 80.8%, just shy of its cyclical high (which was the highest since 2001). It’s stopped going up for the time being, but not going down either. pic.twitter.com/bBlcPhK8bp — Guy Berger (@EconBerger) June 7, 2024 One thing... Read More →

US debt servicing costs currently make up 12% of government spending, via Apollo's Torsten Slok. That could go up substantially if rates stay high and spending habits continue as they are. pic.twitter.com/uyAzYZ9uCJ — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 13, 2024 The low-income consumer:$MDLZ CEO: "Lower-income consumers feel pressured"$HSY CEO: "..a lot of [value-seeking behavior] is coming... Read More →

The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer–3%. Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story yet, but inflation progress is slowing. /1 https://t.co/Y7Mvn3mvcf pic.twitter.com/QVQkhXDdso — Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) April 26,... Read More →

"The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks global markets." cc: @FT pic.twitter.com/qszIPHrQBx — Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) April 16, 2024 "No Landing" surging pic.twitter.com/3QijsLF7Iv — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 18, 2024... Read More →

Relative to the S&P 500, just Energy, Communication Services, and Information Technology are outperforming in 2024. pic.twitter.com/OXeNLPoK9u — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) April 15, 2024 The S&P 500 bull is exhausted. Momentum has been fading fast, suggesting a rocky period is coming in 2Q. pic.twitter.com/zcNTzfhdly — Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) April 11, 2024 March headline CPI hot... Read More →

Another month of very solid hiring for the U.S. economy Payroll growth rose by 303,000 in March and private sector firms added 232,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from 3.9% in February Average three-month private sector hiring: pic.twitter.com/5Yt9teYndI — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 5, 2024 MARCH JOBS +300k sounds hot, BUT more... Read More →

  The headline CPI index rose 0.44% in February and was up 3.2% from a year earlier. The 6-month annualized rate was also 3.2% pic.twitter.com/aXEwQHkpIv — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 12, 2024 China has provided a big disinflationary impulse driving US goods price growth negative over the last year. Keeping inflation a bit above the... Read More →

The latest data shows that the UK has fallen into a technical recession. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. pic.twitter.com/gmBP0u6min — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 15, 2024 🇺🇸The US #economy is in a league of its own pic.twitter.com/VzHZxopm3a — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) February 19, 2024 Retail sales... Read More →