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January 31, 2023

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Strong headline GDP: 2.9% (ar) in Q4. Led by consumption (+2.1%) but also more volatile factors like inventory investment, net exports and government spending. Residential investment continued its plunge. Overall GDP basically at CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. pic.twitter.com/tlNDhxtLD8 — Jason Furman (@jasonfurman)...
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Market Commentary
Q4 2022

Hard to Find Reprieve in 2022 One year ago, we wrote about soaring inflation and the Fed’s need to act quickly to get it under control. Even as inflation approached double-digits early in the year, the Fed continued to downplay the threat and talk of a run-of-the-mill rate hiking cycle, one that seemed out of...
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January 24, 2023

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance US Produce Prices YoY w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/QRsJBkUVVr — Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 18, 2023 US Produce Prices MoM w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/Vw0d6a4KgZ — Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 18, 2023 "December Activity was Soft, even Allowing for Winter Storm Hits" @IanShepherdson https://t.co/qLWAR5pkHl #PantheonMacro...
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January 18, 2023

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance World Bank Cuts 2023 Forecasts and Warns of Global Recession https://t.co/1fFuyva5LH pic.twitter.com/gzCkrX0NAX — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) January 10, 2023 Year-on-year CPI inflation in the US is now fundamentally a story of two categories—Food and Core Services (which includes housing) The year-on-year...
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December 28, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance #Stocks tend to bottom when leading economic indicators (LEI) bottom. The @Conferenceboard LEI -4.46% YoY in November, at the current trend they have 6 months before hitting past troughs of -10%. Of course trends can change & '08 was worse than...
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December 21, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Key Fed Takeaways: – Fed slows rate increase, as expected– But emphasizes that it will do more to restrain the economy– Rates to 5.1% next year, up from 4.6% prev forecast– Unemployment expected to jump (4.6%)– Growth will pull back sharply...
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December 14, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance gm ☀️ pic.twitter.com/BPwxuCG7vA — Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) December 13, 2022 BREAKING BOOM: IT'S COOL: Headline CPI rises just 0.1%. Core CPI rises just 0.2% Economists had been looking for a 0.3% headline gain, and a 0.3% core gain. YOY headline inflation...
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December 7, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Powell: “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” https://t.co/YlZFha3ktg — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 30, 2022 Shorter Powell: It's all about wages. He basically says not to worry about goods or...
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November 30, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Credit card debt is near pre-pandemic levels and this is the latest worry. What they don't tell you is consumers are using only 21% of their total credit, well beneath the 24% avg pre-pandemic. Also, household debt payments relative to income...
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November 23, 2022

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Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Household Debt Rises to $16.51 Trillion on Higher Mortgage, Credit Card Balances @NYFedResearch https://t.co/IPEYVWtLeR pic.twitter.com/Im1bRNG9hR — Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 15, 2022 15% increase in credit card balances in Q3 "towers over the last eighteen years of data" – @NYFedResearch...
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