August 24, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance BREAKING: Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Index soars to 5.03% pic.twitter.com/ssPnrKJC1Q — Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) August 15, 2023 What a monthly mortgage payment would look like for a new home buyer in the US, based on the median existing home price and the... Read More →
August 9, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance There has been an absolutely wild divergence in macro data surprises in the past few months and I am old enough to know that there is no such thing as decoupling… pic.twitter.com/GwE5BIMpkH — Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) August 2, 2023 Key takeaways... Read More →
August 2, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Shorter Powell -FOMC believes policy is restrictive-Doesn’t see Fed cutting this year-Sees 2% inflation w/out big job losses-Staff no longer forecast recession Market hears you’re done, soft landing hopes and dreams. — Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) July 26, 2023 The upper bound... Read More →
July 26, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance 12 Days in a row. Just four other occurrences since WWII. pic.twitter.com/zP3vFO6kET — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 25, 2023 “.. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index — a widely followed indicator that provides a quick-and-dirty snapshot of how the economy is faring against... Read More →
July 19, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The core CPI inflation rate remains relatively high mostly due to its rent components. But when you exclude shelter costs, the core rate dropped to 2.7% y/y in June, while the headline rate plunged to just 1.7%! pic.twitter.com/Yi6D7Tf6oc — Yardeni Research... Read More →
Market Commentary Q2 2023
Key Takeaways The market and economy are facing mixed signals. The yield curve and leading economic indicators are predicting recession. The negative effect of higher interest rates has yet to filter through the economy. Valuations have expanded significantly driven primarily by speculation, not fundamentals. The market is likely to become more volatile over the coming... Read More →
Market Commentary Q1 2023
Recessionary Pressures Building Our outlook for the economy continues to include a recession sometime this year or next. This view is supported by leading economic indicators that show significant slowing and are consistent with levels reached in the past three recessions (see red circles in accompanying chart, red vertical bars represent recession). Pushing the... Read More →
July 5, 2023
Market Performance (First Half of 2023) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance First half of 2023 performance The NASDAQ may be set for its best first half ever pic.twitter.com/ZgaJ43hIPK — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 29, 2023 "It has now been 3 months since we have seen a 3% correction... Read More →
June 21, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Below the surface, the earnings outlook is improving, and more importantly, the breadth of estimate revisions is improving. The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 with rising estimates from three months ago is 47%, up from 27%. With inflation still... Read More →
June 7, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance BREAKING: The US added 339,000 jobs in May versus estimates of 195,000; US unemployment rate rises to 3.7% vs 3.4% https://t.co/QRyl0nqIJv pic.twitter.com/HK6EurOmaf — Bloomberg (@business) June 2, 2023 How many times does a report have to come in better than expected... Read More →