April 30, 2024
The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer–3%. Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story yet, but inflation progress is slowing. /1 https://t.co/Y7Mvn3mvcf pic.twitter.com/QVQkhXDdso — Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) April 26,... Read More →
April 23, 2024
"The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks global markets." cc: @FT pic.twitter.com/qszIPHrQBx — Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) April 16, 2024 "No Landing" surging pic.twitter.com/3QijsLF7Iv — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 18, 2024... Read More →
April 16, 2024
Relative to the S&P 500, just Energy, Communication Services, and Information Technology are outperforming in 2024. pic.twitter.com/OXeNLPoK9u — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) April 15, 2024 The S&P 500 bull is exhausted. Momentum has been fading fast, suggesting a rocky period is coming in 2Q. pic.twitter.com/zcNTzfhdly — Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) April 11, 2024 March headline CPI hot... Read More →
April 9, 2024
Another month of very solid hiring for the U.S. economy Payroll growth rose by 303,000 in March and private sector firms added 232,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from 3.9% in February Average three-month private sector hiring: pic.twitter.com/5Yt9teYndI — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 5, 2024 MARCH JOBS +300k sounds hot, BUT more... Read More →
March 19, 2024
The headline CPI index rose 0.44% in February and was up 3.2% from a year earlier. The 6-month annualized rate was also 3.2% pic.twitter.com/aXEwQHkpIv — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 12, 2024 China has provided a big disinflationary impulse driving US goods price growth negative over the last year. Keeping inflation a bit above the... Read More →
February 20, 2024
The latest data shows that the UK has fallen into a technical recession. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. pic.twitter.com/gmBP0u6min — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 15, 2024 🇺🇸The US #economy is in a league of its own pic.twitter.com/VzHZxopm3a — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) February 19, 2024 Retail sales... Read More →
January 30, 2024
US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8% Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP growth accelerated pic.twitter.com/StwICSXTA8 — Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) January 25, 2024 Not a crazy consumer.... Read More →
January 23, 2024
2/The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spike However, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice its "normal" level pic.twitter.com/LPdgd7Zp9B — Patrick Zweifel (@PkZweifel) January 23, 2024 Total spending from BofA... Read More →
Market Commentary Q4 2023
UPSIDE SURPRISE IN 2023 The US economy was surprisingly strong in 2023, seeing job growth and higher consumer spending, all while inflation moderated. The economy benefited from a third consecutive year of fiscal stimulus with a cumulative $10 trillion added since the initial 2020 COVID-19 response. In a year with strong GDP growth and... Read More →
January 16, 2024
Headline inflation as measured by the CPI was 0.3% in December, pushing the 12-month rate to 3.4% from 3.1% in November. pic.twitter.com/124FDHOAiC — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 11, 2024 We estimate that Dec’s core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1- 3- 6-month annualized measures all below 2%. Solid case for March rate cut based on... Read More →