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April 9, 2024

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Another month of very solid hiring for the U.S. economy Payroll growth rose by 303,000 in March and private sector firms added 232,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from 3.9% in February Average three-month private sector hiring: pic.twitter.com/5Yt9teYndI — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 5, 2024 MARCH JOBS +300k sounds hot, BUT more...
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March 19, 2024

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  The headline CPI index rose 0.44% in February and was up 3.2% from a year earlier. The 6-month annualized rate was also 3.2% pic.twitter.com/aXEwQHkpIv — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 12, 2024 China has provided a big disinflationary impulse driving US goods price growth negative over the last year. Keeping inflation a bit above the...
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February 20, 2024

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The latest data shows that the UK has fallen into a technical recession. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. pic.twitter.com/gmBP0u6min — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 15, 2024 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈThe US #economy is in a league of its own pic.twitter.com/VzHZxopm3a — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) February 19, 2024 Retail sales...
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January 30, 2024

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US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8% Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP growth accelerated pic.twitter.com/StwICSXTA8 — Joey Politano πŸ³οΈβ€πŸŒˆ (@JosephPolitano) January 25, 2024 Not a crazy consumer....
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January 23, 2024

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2/The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spike However, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice its "normal" level pic.twitter.com/LPdgd7Zp9B — Patrick Zweifel (@PkZweifel) January 23, 2024 Total spending from BofA...
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Market Commentary Q4 2023

UPSIDE SURPRISE IN 2023 Β  The US economy was surprisingly strong in 2023, seeing job growth and higher consumer spending, all while inflation moderated.Β  The economy benefited from a third consecutive year of fiscal stimulus with a cumulative $10 trillion added since the initial 2020 COVID-19 response.Β  In a year with strong GDP growth and...
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January 16, 2024

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Headline inflation as measured by the CPI was 0.3% in December, pushing the 12-month rate to 3.4% from 3.1% in November. pic.twitter.com/124FDHOAiC — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 11, 2024 We estimate that Dec’s core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1- 3- 6-month annualized measures all below 2%. Solid case for March rate cut based on...
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December 19, 2023

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The never ending late cycle #economic environment continues with a relatively strong jobs report: > Health care & Government still the largest drivers of #job gains +77k & +49k > Revisions -35k for Sept.> Average hourly earnings up> Unemployment rate ticks down 3.7%@BLS_gov pic.twitter.com/QQ3lbUgWyH — Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) December 8, 2023 Real average hourly...
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November 7, 2023

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Here's a look at current yields across the Treasury curve compared to the peak closing yield seen for each bond/bill during the current tightening cycle. Yields have come down quite a bit, but we're still mostly inverted. pic.twitter.com/xFI3xrRpZI — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 24, 2023 The Conference Board marks a recession trigger when the growth rate...
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October 31, 2023

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Headline inflation in the PCE index was 0.36% in September from August The 12-month PCE inflation rate held steady at 3.4% 6-month annualized rate: +3.1% (vs 2.6% in Aug)3-month annualized rate: +3.8% (vs 3.1% in Aug) pic.twitter.com/QGapKKO2H5 — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 27, 2023 (2/2) To get a view of what's really driving GDP under...
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